The brand isn't being rejected — it's being overlooked.
Einstein Bros sits at a structural awareness gap versus the breakfast and coffee majors, but the conversion mechanics below the top of the funnel are healthy. The leverage point is clear: get known, stay known — retention and preference follow naturally from there.
Awareness is the ceiling on everything else
At 64.5% aided awareness, Einstein Bros trails Dunkin', Starbucks, Panera, McDonald's, Chick-fil-A, Burger King, and Wendy's — all at 97–99%. A 32–35 percentage-point gap is the single biggest constraint on every downstream metric.
But trial conversion is strong. This brand is chosen when it's known.
88% of people aware of Einstein's have visited — roughly 567 of 648. Awareness → trial is not the problem. The funnel leaks above, not below.
The West is the playbook
12.6% unaided in the West (vs 6.8% nationally) and 33.9% of Westerners are 5+ visit regulars (vs 22.0% nationally). Whatever is working in the West is the template for other regions.
Convenience is the one perception wound
Across 8 rated attributes, Convenience (locations, hours) is the only one with 21.7% bottom-two — roughly 5× any other attribute — and the #1 cited reason non-visitors haven't been is "no location near me" (273 of 395 non-triers, 69.1%).
The funnel, at a glance
From awareness to preference.
Each stage is the percentage of the filtered base that converts to that level of engagement. Drop-off between stages reveals where marketing dollars create the most downstream lift.
Full funnel
Conversion efficiencies
Funnel by region
Funnel by age
Funnel by income
Who Einstein's is really competing with.
The breakfast-and-coffee category is top-heavy: three names own mindshare. Einstein's competitive frame is less about direct category rivals (bagel shops) and more about the default morning-routine destinations people already visit.
Unaided top-of-mind
Aided awareness — national brands
Regular patronage — national brands
Regional brand awareness
"Go-to" brand for the category
What the go-to brand does better
What people believe about Einstein Bros.
Attribute ratings capture where the brand sits on quality, value, and experience. Impressions sources reveal how much of what people believe comes from actual visits versus vibes, ads, and second-hand reports.
Attribute ratings
Pricing perception
Three-word associations
Where impressions come from
What pulls people in, what keeps them out.
Two questions matter for growth: Why do regulars stay? Why do non-triers stay away? Their answers point to different marketing muscles.
Why regulars come back
Why non-triers haven't been
What would win non-triers over
What makes brands "make the cut" in general
Why lapsed users drifted away
Switch-away risks (current users)
Who is the brand winning with — and losing with?
Geographic and demographic cuts against the full Einstein Bros funnel, trended against the national baseline. Use these to prioritize media weight, trade spend, and locality strategy.
Full funnel by region
Full funnel by age
Full funnel by gender
Full funnel by household income
In their own words.
Free-text responses from the two open fields that yielded the richest signal: "If Einstein Bros could change one thing to win you over" and the first three words that come to mind. Searchable.
Browse verbatims
Sample, quotas, and data integrity.
Every number in this report is traceable to the underlying 1,004 completed interviews. Sample matched to Bain Wave 1 customer demographics for direct baseline comparison.
Field summary
Wave: Baseline — Q2 2026 · n: 1,004 completed interviews · Mode: AI-moderated conversational interviews (Gather) · Field window: 2026-04-08 to 2026-04-22 · Geography: United States, 50 states + DC
Quota compliance
Quotas were set to match Einstein Bros' customer profile from Bain Wave 1 (L3M customers). Every dimension hit target within ±1.0 percentage points.
| Region | Target | Actual | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 11% | 12.0% +1.0 | 120 |
| Midwest | 18% | 17.9% -0.1 | 180 |
| West | 29% | 28.5% -0.5 | 286 |
| South | 42% | 41.6% -0.4 | 418 |
| Age | Target | Actual | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18–24 | 3% | 2.9% | 29 |
| 25–34 | 16% | 16.1% | 162 |
| 35–44 | 30% | 29.4% | 295 |
| 45–54 | 23% | 22.7% | 228 |
| 55–64 | 15% | 14.9% | 150 |
| 65+ | 14% | 13.9% | 140 |
| Gender | Target | Actual | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 44% | 44.5% +0.5 | 447 |
| Female | 55% | 55.0% 0.0 | 552 |
| Income | Target | Actual | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $25,000 | 4% | 4.2% | 42 |
| 14% | 13.9% | 140 | |
| 21% | 20.9% | 210 | |
| $75,000–$99,999 | 20% | 19.9% | 200 |
| 24% | 23.4% -0.6 | 235 | |
| $150,000–$199,999 | 10% | 10.0% | 100 |
| $200,000+ | 8% | 7.7% | 77 |
Regional brand gating
Per the research design, regional brands were only asked in their core geographies:
- Tim Hortons — Northeast only (n = 120)
- Caribou Coffee — Midwest only (n = 180)
- Dutch Bros — West only (n = 286)
- First Watch — South only (n = 418)
Metric definitions
- Unaided awareness: % who mentioned the brand in the open-ended top-of-mind question before any brand names appeared in the interview.
- Aided awareness: % who selected any option other than "Never heard of it" when prompted with the brand name.
- Trial (ever): % who reported any visit frequency other than "I've never been" on the 12-month frequency question.
- Regular (5+/yr): % who visited 5–9 or 10+ times in past 12 months.
- Heavy (10+/yr): % who visited 10+ times in past 12 months.
- First choice: % who answered "My go-to / first choice" to the breakfast-routine-position question.
- Purchase intent (hi): % who selected "Very likely" or "Somewhat likely" to visit in the next month.
Vendor
Fielded and reported by Gather — AI-moderated conversational research platform.